Bankers on joy: in the exchanges, the dollar will come back

The national Bank will no longer even try to keep the hryvnia. Today its rate will shape the market. Bankers promise that the currency will finally appear in the exchange offices.

 

5 February, the national Bank of Ukraine has ceased to conduct foreign exchange auctions and the hryvnia exchange rate will be determined solely by market mechanisms of supply and demand in the interbank foreign exchange market, said controller informs еizvestia.com.

 

"For us it is very positive news," said the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Bank "national credit" Andrew Onistrat. According to him, now, foreign currency, albeit at a higher rate, can be purchased at exchange points.

 

"Now there will be no restrictions and no need to hide in the corner," he says. We were forced to put on the window 16, the actual market was trading at 20. And we were out of the market. Now we are back on the market. We calculate the real exchange rate".

 

The practice of currency auctions some compromise solution, which in the last few three months to restrain the growth of the dollar. After this summer NBU went on the condition of the International monetary Fund and refused to fix the rate, it was necessary to find a tool that would, on the one hand, was a market, and on the other, did not allow the national currency to collapse in conditions of war and economic crisis.

 

The indicative rate was determined on the basis of applications from banks, which wanted to buy the currency at auctions. The exchange rate in exchange offices was not able to deviate from the benchmark by more than 1%.

 

But by December it became clear that to keep the hryvnia thus becomes impossible. "We simply do not have the technical capabilities to do it," explained this decision to go to market exchange rate, the NBU head Valeria Gontareva.

 

Banks began to make applications at the lower rate, and in fact, the currency was sold for 30% more expensive. There have been several courses. For example, according to the site the Course of money on 5 February, when the official exchange rate of the dollar in 17,99 UAH, Bank amounted to 17.1 USD, but to buy the dollar can only UAH 22, 95mm on the gray or black market.

 

Instead of holding UAH NBU will seek to contain inflation. According to the results of the 2014 consumer prices grew by 24.9%, particularly noticeable in the last quarter (+8%). The national Bank expects that in the first half of this year, inflation will slow, and by the end it will not exceed 15%.

 

For the national Bank will pursue a tighter monetary policy. The discount rate will increase of 14.0 to 19.5%. That is, banks will be more expensive to borrow UAH. Currency auctions will not. And the currency, the regulator will sell only Naftogaz. The latter will eliminate from the market the largest buyer of exchange, buying dollars to pay for Russian gas, strongly pressed on the course.

 

Chief economist of IR Dragon Capital Elena Belan believes that now the official rate will be much better reflect reality. Black market instantly disappears. But soon visibly shrink, if the national Bank is no longer strictly regulate the interbank market.