Will be a surprise? What will happen to the price of gasoline in 2016?

The fall in oil prices is very good news for Ukraine as Sportsline consumer of petroleum products. By calculations of experts of "Consulting group A-95", in the stabilization of oil prices below $40 per barrel the price of Ukrainian gas stations have to fall below $ 20 hryvnia per liter of A-95 gasoline and UAH 16 per litre of diesel fuel. This view of the "Analytical service of news" (ASN) was expressed by the Director of "Consulting group A-95" Sergey Kuiun.

 

However, according to him, it should be noted that a much stronger factor in pricing in Ukraine is the exchange rate.

 

"About 50% of the cost of petroleum products in the retail chain accounted for the purchase price of the fuel that is imported, that is purchased for the currency. About 35% taxes - excise tax (ustanovleniyu Euro) and VAT for the sum of procurement cost and excise duty. It is the devaluation caused an increase in gasoline prices in Ukraine, despite the decline in oil prices have already nearly tripled in the last two years", - says Sergey Kuiun, noting that, unfortunately, "against the background of high prices, as before, there remains the issue of quality of gasoline. It is already possible to say that in 2015 the situation has only worsened. According to our estimates, if in 2014 the share of counterfeit goods accounted for about 20% of the gasoline market in 2015, obviously, will amount to 25%".

 

According to the expert, the main incentive of this process is the rising price and rising fuel taxes, it automatically increases the earnings of those who produce handicraft oil products, because the tax on them nobody pays. "Today, when the price of petrol, on average, 20 hryvnia per liter taxes comprise about 45%, or UAH 9 per liter. Still 2-3 hryvnia per liter - is earning the gas station, he said. In other words, the profitability of trade by the "left" gasoline is more than 50% - a very respectable level even in good times, not to mention the current crisis".

 

Main hopes to rectify the situation, says Kuyun associated with the adoption of the package of bills as part of the Tax code, awaiting a vote in the Parliament. "We are talking about developed in the relevant Committee of Parliament headed by Nina Yiannou the bill to strengthen the administration of excise duties on petroleum products. The principle innovation is that all operations of fuel are recorded in a single database, and automatic control through the payment of fuel excise.

 

The trader will not be able to sell more fuel than bought previously. This will dramatically complicate transactions with unaccounted fuel, and therefore its production. It is encouraging that the bill was supported by the Ministry of Finance and DFS", - concludes the expert fuel market.